August 20, 2024
The number of US initial claims dropped by 7.000 to 227.000 in the week ending on August 8 against 234.000 a week before. It is the second consecutive slowdown in the indicator from the top at 250.000 two weeks ago.
The recent data suggests labor market easing has been slowing in the last three weeks which is a positive signal for Fed now concerned with signs of recession emerging as a result of tight monetary policy.
These two weeks of sliding in the indicator is still not enough to speak about the reversal of the upward trend in it. Beginning in January 2024 (see chart) this uptrend signaled the start of easing in labor market so much desired by police-makers in order to cool inflation. Technically this trend is still alive and able to keep going (see chart).
⭐️Summary:
Initial jobless claims slowed last week which is a positive signal in current situation with Fed shifting its attention from price pressure to recession looming. However, this slowdown is still only a correction in the uptrend running from the beginning of the year.