03.07.24
Initial jobless claims shows consistency with the trend started in the beginning of the year (see chart above).
This indicates some easing in labor market as businesses are reluctant to initiate new hires and even close existing ones in the environment where the cost of money are high because of tight policy conducted by the Fed.
This is a positive signal for Fed looking for opportunity to start policy easing, as more relaxed labor market means less inflationary risks.
Meanwhile Fed’s Powell said recently that economy was on a ‘disinflationary path’ which can be interpreted as a good sign for sooner rate cut.
For now markets expect that easing cycle will most likely start in September.