August 20, 2024
US retail sales rose by 1% in July over the month and by 2.7% over the year showing the record monthly jump since February 2023. Monthly dynamic of the indicator has been going downward since September 2023 (see chart). Today figures lift hope for the start of upward movement.
Yearly data still demonstrates quite weak results if compared with a year ago when the rate of growth averaged around 4% (see chart).
The data rases optimism the recent signs of slowdown in the US economy, after unemployment rose unexpectedly in July, are not going to materialize as consumers take easing inflation and coming rate cuts positively and step froward to boost the economy.
⭐️Summary:
Rapid jump in retail sales in July rases hope for reviving consumer confidence on the back of easing inflation and coming rate cuts. If this hope materializes it will allow Fed to cut rates more moderately as the threat of recession subsides.