August 26, 2024
US durable goods orders sharply jumped up by 9.9% in July, indicating businesses look to increasing output as the prospect of lower interest rates may boost consumer confidence in coming months. 3-month moving average has broken the downtrend coming from July 2023 and now looks hopefully upward (see chart).
Any sign of recovery in economic activity is a sweet message for the Fed, which recently switched its attention from inflation to labor market. In the case the economy stands firmly in the first half of the year the unemployment will have the chance to decelerate its current run-up.